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this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2023
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This is such a reversal from Poland's previous position of give Ukraine all the weapons... not sure if they are serious or negotiating
I think it's still consistent with all that, people are misunderstanding the headline;
Which makes sense, you can't give everything away. Also Ukraine may not need more weapons, and it might benefit more from other forms of support. Having a well defended allied neighbor has benefits too.
It's still 'bad', and could be a political move in response to the grain stuff, but it's not 'changing sides'
Perun has done an excellent job of demonstrating how dedicated Poland is, if not to the support of Ukraine, to the cause of inflicting maximum pain on Russia.
In terms of total budget, in terms of armament sent over unofficially, in terms of everything except getting involved in the firing themselves.
One might say there is a cultural component to Poland's very strong reaction to the situation. Which makes no more arms almost a non sequitur.
Even if Poland has given away everything it can give, the more they produce and buy, the more they can give. Until they're in a shooting war themselves
The problem is that one thing is the Polish People, another thing is the politicians in power in Poland.
The politicians will go along with the people if that's to their advantage (and all the rearming with fresh weaponry and giving the old ones to Ukraine is a wonderful setup for said politicians to personally make tons of money with all that public dosh flowing around), but that doesn't mean they're true believers.
(This, by the way is true everywhere, especially with populist politicians, and I'm not trying to single out Poland on this here).
As it so happens, right now the governing party in Poland is near parliamentary elections, running behind on the polls, and the Farmer Vote seems like a mighty appealing way to solve that. Since the farmers are worried about "cheap ukranian grain", the politicians of the governing party, following their own personal priorities, are sacrificing the "hurting of Russia" and Ukraine to get those votes.
I mean, it makes sense for them, but it also shows their "Hurt Russia" policy isn't really heartfelt, more a "principle" of convenience (and when it's not convenient, they have other principles).
There are going to be parliamentary elections there this year, the polls put the governing party slightly behind the opposition on voting intentions, the Farmer's vote could tip the balance the other way and guess who is worried the most about "cheap grain from Ukraine"...
Agroholdings
Makes me concerned that Poland is tired of being on the sidelines and is about to jump in