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this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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Possibly, but some of the new technologies would be considered extremely provocative by Russia if we supplied them to Ukraine. We are already treading a very fine line with involvement in this conflict, and being accused of using Ukraine to fight a proxy war (though mostly by people who have a vested interest in Russia/Putin winning the war).
We have been supplying the Javelin antitank system in large quantities, to great effect. This is relatively easy because it's quick to train a soldier to use and it can just be disposed of if broken or out of ammo.
It's important that we not send them equipment that they can't operate, supply or maintain. For instance we didn't send them any modern US-built fighter jets because they don't have pilots trained to fly them, a supply chain for spare parts, or mechanics trained to fix them. Ultimately, logistics matters more than having the latest and greatest tech (logistics has been absolutely wrecking Russia's battlefield effectiveness).
That's a huge bet to make. The whole point of nuclear deterrence is so nuclear powers don't think to directly engage each other in any serious way. No one is anxious to call a nuclear bluff, especially since this is basically win or die for Putin.
I actually mostly agree and was being a bit sarcastic. Training on newer systems is prohibitive anyway as you mentioned. Sending personell is clearly provocative and should be avoided. I just find the argument that the military industrial complex ran out of the bullets to help is laughable.
Obviously, production increases with demand and lags it causing stockpiles to decrease until output increases. Hopefully the quoted assessment is talking about that dip and not a more serious problem.
Really though, Russia knows the US is obligated to help. They signed the memorandum too, after all. It's hard to argue with someone that does so in bad faith, but continuing aid is hardly a provocative act.
When was the last effective Javelin strike? I thought that people have shifted towards using FPV drones to target armoured vehicles instead.