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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2023
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Up until about a week ago, this talking point was still current, but it's time for a refresh.
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They're making slow progress constantly but the front lines are barely moving. There's obviously a chance for a big break through as the first defences are always the heaviest and it should get easier after that, but there's still a long way to go, and they're both taking heavy casualties every single day.
That's the opposite of Russia's defensive doctrine, which would only be exacerbated further by the ability to deploy reserves where necessary. It could be a different story if Ukraine wasn't having to commit their exploitation forces just to try to reach the first lines of defense; even if they break through tomorrow they won't really have the manpower to do anything with it.
The only actual progress being made is in destroying the equipment NATO managed to cobble together and losing trained manpower. Even if a miracle happened and Ukraine managed to make some breakthrough, what exactly is it going to be consolidated with given that they spent past three and a half months beating their head against a wall. They've already thrown in all the reserve brigades that were originally meant to come in and consolidate the gains now.