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this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2023
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I don't think the reform elements have military support. They've never had it. Unfortunately I don't think they have a clear path to get it. Iran had protests before the so-called Arab spring. They were brutally put down. The fact that these concessions have been made is good, but realistically what they've accomplished is that the religious police are more cautious and less publicly brutal. I don't know what it will take for real reform in Iran but I don't think they're there yet.
They still have a long way to go for that to happen.
The first rule of autocratic regime is pamper your military, your police and everybody who has weapons.