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this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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That's not what Putin said in the first week of March 2022, he said they were sending a special operation to protect ethnic Russians living in Ukraine and to de-nazify Ukraine. Those were his words. Not Putin's fault the FSB couldn't find any Nazis for the livestreams, right? Must be tough to be him, when his own words were streamed around the world and can't be erased. Is bombing maternity hospitals part of his strategy to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO? Strangely, crushing women and children to death using glide bomb attacks on apartment buildings has not been persuasive.
I don't really believe anything Putin says, I believe what he does. I think "protecting ethnic Russians" was an excuse to achieve his main goal, which was to keep Ukraine from joining NATO, and to resolve the dispute around Crimea.
I think he wanted a quick war, but Ukraine didn't play ball and now he needs to save face to stay in power. So he desperately needs a win here, so he's pivoting to Russian nationalism to stay in power because it's becoming pretty clear that this war is going to drag on.
You're saying two different things. Him attacking Ukraine is him doing something but the only way you could read the motivation as something done to stop Ukraine joining NATO is either basing it off of what someone in the regime said (hypocritical) or projecting what you want onto the situation to square a pre-conceived narrative in your head.
There seems to have been a set of informal assurances between the US/NATO and the USSR that NATO wouldn't expand eastward past Germany, though there were no legally binding agreements. Russia objected when NATO expanded in the 90s, and it continued objecting as more and more countries joined NATO. This isn't new, it's a clearly established pattern.
So when we get to Putin, I think his argument that NATO is being too aggressive has merit, at least from the Russian perspective. If he allows NATO to continue expanding, the Russian people would justifiably be pretty upset, so he essentially is forced to take some kind of action to show that Russia has certain lines in the sand. If he lets Ukraine, their next-door neighbor, join NATO, who would trust that he actually has any kind of power to protect Russian interests? So it makes complete sense that Putin decided to invade Ukraine for the primary purpose of preserving a line of buffer states, as well as legally justify the taking of Crimea. That sends a message to other border states that Russia will not stand by while it's regional influence is further eroded.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he was justified in attacking Ukraine, I'm merely saying he was obligated to demonstrate a show of force to retain his position of power. If he was able to get a peace agreement from Ukraine to not join NATO and to formally recognize Russian control of Crimea, I think he would've withdrawn. That didn't happen, so now he's between a rock and a hard place and needs to get significant concessions from Ukraine to retain his power in Russia.
I'm saying that what Putin DOES is send resources to eradicate Ukraine as a nation. You're right that the excuses keep changing. It was never really about preventing NATO membership for him. It's about seizing and destroying.
Idk, if he completely absorbs Ukraine, that puts him right next door to a very angry NATO. I really don't think he wants that, he wants a buffer, and he wants Europe to get over what he's done in Ukraine. I think he now sees that ship has sailed, and he can't really back down due to local political pressure, so he has to keep going.
Brother, there isn't a single picture of a single Ukranian military unit taken in the past ten years where somebody isn't wearing a fascist symbol of some kind. The reason the SMU stretched on is much more material - the Russian leadership greatly overestimated their military's capabilities.
Nacho brother, pal. ;) I prefer "fren" or "buddy".