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submitted 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) by ozoned@lemmy.world to c/science@lemmy.world

Research paper referenced in the video that makes Dr. Hossenfelder very worried:

Global warming in the pipeline: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

Abstract

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

My basic summary (I am NOT a climate scientist so someone tell me if I'm wrong and I HOPE this is wrong for my children), scientists had dismissed hotter climate models due to the fact that we didn't have historical data to prove them. Now folks are applying hotter models to predicting weather and the hotter models appear to be more accurate. So it looks like we're going to break 2C BEFORE 2050 and could hit highs of 8C-10C by the end of the century with our CURRENT levels of green house gases, not even including increasing those.

EDIT: Adding more sources:

Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019MS001986

Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5

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[-] Eldritch@lemmy.world 20 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

We bring it up for a reason. When it comes to science content, we want accuracy and factualness. You are okay with lies and fantasy. That's a you thing. so you do you.

It's not like it's even a rare or unheard of thing either. Other YouTubers like scishow regularly correct themselves. When they find out the information they presented was inaccurate. Sabine could do that too. But to my knowledge she hasn't yet. And that's the problem.

Even then it wasn't like she simply misplaced the decimal point or misstated something accidentally. It was horribly inaccurate shit takes. At odds with history, psychology, biology etc. Further, this sort of content was completely out of her wheelhouse. If she wanted to express her personal held feelings and emotions surrounding these topics. It would have been better on a second channel. Devoted to that sort of thing. It's hard to take someone's science channel seriously when they stop doing science and start doing propaganda. That's all.

It's just really telling that you are more at odds with people who have lost respect for her over her lack of professionality. As opposed to her for not being professional.

this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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