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this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2024
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Unfinished civil war is an interesting take. Still, in every matter there is someone making the decisions, are there matters where the decisions are shared? Or some areas where they get made by Taiwan, while others where they get made by China?
TSMC has been a really smart move on the part of Taiwan; by out-competing everyone at a time when everyone was happy to outsource as much as possible, it's made Taiwan a critical asset to most of the world.
Still, that isn't likely to last for too long. Mainland China is already manufacturing semiconductors with older node technologies, and both the US and EU have been ramping up local foundries, so the protection TSMC brings Taiwan is likey to disappear rather sooner than later.
What your getting at is in my opinion, the core of the matter. It's really an issue of shared decisions. Each side is trying to position themselves to get the lion's share of them. The truth is, regardless of Taiwan and China call themselves one or separate, ultimately it will always be an issue of what decision each side gets to make. In many ways we see that playing out in the US/China relationship as well.
TSMC isn't really that important. Without TSMC and US interference, China would have just chugged along anyway. And we are seeing even with US interference, China's plan is to just chug along. It's the US that keeps bringing up TSMC because as you mentioned, it's a decision that's getting more and more out of US's ability to make decisions on.