The amount of grain still going to Africa is very significant, not to mention whatever processing then export of secondary products eventually goes to developing countries. And grain is a global commodity. Without the grain deal, Ukraine doesn’t have any other viable option to export at volume that can compete with sea exports, given that the European rail gauges are different and the physical logistics of transporting it are cost prohibitive and limited by capacity. That raises the price of Ukrainian grain which raises the price of grain globally since it all competes in the same global market. And those who would be most affected are countries who are both food importers and poor, where Africa and the Middle East are top of the list.

Rising grain prices sparked the Arab spring, were part contributor to the political and economic collapse of Sri Lanka, and in general higher food prices have a very disproportionate effect on the poor everywhere.