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this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2023
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I'm interested to see if it'll leave the port.
I’m not sure what Russia’s options are here, beyond creating hazards to navigation. They certainly can’t fire on a foreign flagged ship. The P-8 they have monitoring it is signaling that the US is potentially prepared to respond in real time. In addition, attacking a foreign-flagged civilian vessel, especially one so clearly identified, would be a very dangerous gambit with a low payoff and potentially lethally high cost. It’s not even the Israelis. It’s that the world might become involved if it’s the straw that broke the camel’s back about Russia being a rogue nation that needs to be contained before the conflagration spreads.
I don’t even think they can mine the harbor at this point. That ship sailed, no pun intended. Mining the harbor at this point could be interpreted as an attack on this vessel.
If they can present a physical blockade such that the Israeli shipment (the ship is not Israeli flagged btw, but that’s not unusual), they might be able to do it. That’s easier said than done, because they’d have to do so at sea out of range of Ukrainian weapon systems.
You don't need to think about what options Russia has, you need to think about how mentally unstable Putin is.
I'm interested to see what assets Israel destroys if Ruzzia fucks around & sinks that hauler.
I can tell you which ship they won't sink: the moskva
They might throw out some sea mines but doubt they would sink a foreign civilian ship directly.
After ship "mysteriously" sinks: "The vessel died of suicide after shooting itself twice in the back of the head, and then falling off a tall building." - Russia, probably