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It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over
(www.businessinsider.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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A) I'm not sure China has had global dominance over the US, but they definitely have dominance over pretty much every other country depending how you measure it.
B) I'm really really not sure I believe the gloom and doom predictions for China's economy when the government tightly controls all aspects of the economy. Even if they have reached the end of the boom, I don't see much of a backslide. They are buying up shipping ports around the world to give themselves preferential rates and access. They are buying up natural resources around the world to give themselves better preferential rates. They are doing what the US did for so long in giving out predatory loans to struggling countries in exchange for preferential trade relations.
I'm pretty anti-China in most things, but I'm realistic about the state of the world.
For your second point, I feel that their declining birth rate is a huge problem that adds to the economic downturn they are facing. After the one child policy they were already facing a generation gap in the workforce, and now that the people are generally against having kids due to financial constraint, they will not be able to keep up with the workforce demand regardless of how much control the government has.
What they are doing now (to my limited understanding of global economics) is just investing to pad their economy and brace for the sudden hit their economy will take at some point.
They also have the most disproportionate gender imbalance of any nation in history, and gender imbalance is strongly associated with internal disunity and violence.
The catch is China might welcome immigrants to make up the difference in population.
I mean this is China. I don't think there are enough immigrants (especially immigrants who'd be better off going to China than their home country) to fill the gap.
Climate change is going to force a lot of migrants from the middle towards the poles. You might ge surprised how many will flood north/south.
Oh yeah fair enough.
China's going to need an astronomical amount of migration to sustain their aging population, and there's little to no reason why people would choose to migrate there over basically anywhere in the West.
China would need to do some dramatic reinvention to become an appealing destination for migrants. Step 1 might be not arbitrarily taking migrants as hostages for political purposes.