Lol. After I wrote that I realized how it came off. Bad grammar.
My science falls more on the mesosphere/stratosphere side from space weather effects (top down rather than bottom up). However, SSW events are fascinating phenomena and have profound impacts on potentially all layers of the atmosphere. I’m currently developing (with lots of help) a high-top forecasting model that extends from the surface to the thermosphere. Forecasting SSW events are something we are hoping to improve with this model having a fully resolved mesosphere. I’ll edit my original post as I was hard on your article. I’ll also DM you my email and we can chat further.
Fair enough. Certainly true on La Niña fostering conditions for SSW events due to the change in planetary wave propagation. I’m not sold on the very, very early development of the polar vortex being a predictor though. That said, if your forecast holds, I’d be interested in revisiting this conversation. I’ve bookmarked your page and will reach out in the spring if you are correct. We can discuss it further.
I don’t disagree with its usefulness as a potential predictor once it is formed. I’ve seen the literature on its impact on NAO and the AO. This is particularly true following sudden stratospheric warming events and its correlation with cold air outbreaks in the NH. However claiming that it is “weak” is misleading since it hasn’t formed yet. And to my knowledge, the physical mechanism of the interaction between the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric jet has not been determined. We think it is related to wave reflection from planetary wave and gravity waves during a sudden stratospheric warming event. But if we don’t understand the mechanism, forecast or climate models are incapable of predicting them since that physics will not be included in the models. At this point, using the jet stream in the stratosphere (the unformed vortex) as a predictor for the NH winter will not be better than climatology.
Check out this link to see what the actual polar vortex looks like:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-60.71,59.02,169
This shows wind speed in the middle stratosphere. Since it is still winter in the southern hemisphere, you’ll find the polar vortex there. It is the very strong circular vortex surrounding the South Pole. The northern hemisphere doesn’t have one yet because it is still summer here. Hence my argument against claiming it is “weak” in the article. It simply doesn’t exist yet.
I work in the middle atmosphere and several things in this article I disagree with. First off, the polar vortex is a stratospheric and mesospheric jet stream that exists in the winter time. There is no polar vortex in the stratosphere during the summer. Let me repeat that. There is no polar vortex in the northern hemisphere right now! So how are you using it for predictions? Second, the media stole the term “polar vortex” for the Arctic jet stream that exists in the troposphere. Moreover, while correlations have been made (see Baldwin et al., 2021) on the stratospheric impact on the tropospheric weather, the physics aren’t well understood. Assuming you can make predictions on the northern hemisphere winter based on the polar vortex in the stratosphere (which again, doesn’t exist yet because it is summer) months out is unlikely.
Edit: I edited out the argument that the OP may not reputable since they are a meteorologist in Canada.
Edit2: I’ve edited my original post slightly after discussing this concept with the OP.
Wizardry V, The Heart of Maelstrom was probably the hardest game I’ve ever played. Without the internet to cheat, it was a incredibly frustrating challenge and I never beat it until much later when I used walkthroughs and an emulator. Great game though. RIP, Andrew.
I don’t think a grassroots revolution will be taking place anytime soon, but this is aimed at the young people of Russia who are against the war. The old people there love Putin but I suspect they also aren’t watching YouTube.
While I understand people’s initial reaction to think this is a positive thing, I don’t believe it is. The less free speech and media the Russian people have access to, the more control Putins propaganda machine has.
The EU needs teeth and what I mean by that is a way to remove countries who no longer fit the criteria needed to be a member of the EU.
It passed 91-3. Our representatives are ignorant dinosaurs who don’t understand the internet or how it works. I already contacted both my senators. I plan to contact my house members before they make this abomination into a law. I encourage everyone to do the same.