We will either get Fascism or Fascism Lite™

Kamala will probably win the popular vote, but Trump will take the presidency either through a technical, electoral college win, or a supreme court decision.

If Kamala somehow wins the popular vote and the electoral college, expect more violence. Probably large scale organized violence like we saw in 2021, but also increases in mass shootings and hate crimes. Unless she wins by a landslide (which is very unlikely) the supreme court will likely be involved and the process will drag on into at least January, if not longer. The court will probably find or invent a legal position that gives Trump the presidency anyway.

No matter who is president, Americans living in red states are fucked and any Palestinians living in Gaza are probably going to be killed.

A Trump presidency would be bad for every American and every person living where the US has influence. If the Republicans also take control of congress when they elect Trump, it's probable that would be the end of the United States as we know it. Trump dismantled a lot of important parts of the administrative state that keeps the gears of government turning during his first presidency. A second round in office, with the other two branches in his pocket, would give him the chance to completely gut the institutions of the united states until the presidency controls everything at the national level.

We would probably see a national abortion ban, a ban on transgender care for adults and minors, the gutting of civil rights protections, most government services privatized, the destruction of countless government agencies and a purge of anyone who might object to any of that.

A Harris presidency would stall some of the efforts of the fascist takeover of the United States but not even a majority of those efforts. Republican controlled states would go into overdrive with their destabilizing agendas. Life will become a lot worse for anyone who isn't a cishet white man living but has the misfortune of living in Maga country.

The good news is regardless of the outcome Trump won't be involved in the 2028 presidential election, if we have one. He's old enough and senile enough that he won't be in any shape to govern by then so at least we get some new horrors to look forward to.

I've got a feeling we'll see Bush v. Gore style recount shenanigans or worse. Trumpist "stop the steal" people have begun to infiltrate the election process, right?

It's a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I'm hearing.

Violence.

It's gonna be a shitshow.

Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.

However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I'll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform...

The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.

Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.

Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.

Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.

They don’t ever figure it out.

Without question Trump is winning. It feels like it should defy logic, but it actually matches with the current mood in the nation, and the state of the 'culture war'.

The 1% will benefit.

2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.

That's what I'd bet on if I were a betting man.

My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn

My rational side wants to see Harris win, but the anarchist in me wants to see Trump win, just to see what would happen. Not living in the US, obviously.

Trump winning could be a disaster for the whole world since US is such a major player in basically everything, but my anarchist side does not listen.

Civil war, because Trump won’t accept the result and Musk will be fueling the hate.

Jill Stein comes from behind to take the surprise win. Dems and Republicans both claim it's stolen.

Right now I think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, but it would also not be an enormous surprise if Trump wins.

It's going to be a shit show.

Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.

Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.

2016 election night again. Kamala has more votes, loses electoral college