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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2023
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Ukraine
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Right now, the main talking point driving it up is China, not Ukraine.
Which may not even happen. China has some financial problems both short (real estate crisis) and long (one-child policies causing a population crunch with lots of old people and few young people). It's thought that they need to invade Taiwan in the next 8 years if they're going to do it at all, but that window may already be closing.
Not that any of that ever got in the way of building an even bigger navy.
Unfortunately, great powers that have recently peaked and are beginning their inevitable decline are at their most dangerous. It's when they're still powerful but feel a need to prove it. See the Soviets in the 80s, USA in the 2000s, China in the 2020s-30s.