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this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2024
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The SECOND Russia uses nukes, it's OVER. Russia's entire existence ceases to exist, as EVERY country will nuke Russia. It won't be WWIII.
WWIII would imply two set of countries of roughly equal might, and each side has several countries fighting together.
This would be more like EVERYBODY vs Russia. And they wouldn't last more than a few days.
Unless the nuclear fallout is proven to effect a NATO ally and trigger Article 5, no one would give a shit if Russia nuked itself on its own territory. And no one other than the US can afford to unleash all of their their nuclear arsenal, costing billions of dollars and their only defense deterrence, in one go to light the powder keg and be left without nukes to defend themselves.
However, you are correct, Russia would cease to exist if they retaliated disproportionately and a single molecule of NATO territory was effected as a result.
The fact that it's Russia substantially increases this possibility.