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Gravediggers [Forrest Brazeal]
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this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2024
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Even if it might pop on the consumer side, the supply and corporate side wont pop. There are already 100s of billions of dollars going into AI stuff, they wont allow themselves to just sit on that investment. If it does pop, they will be bailed out by the states just like the banks were in the past.
Either way the GPUs used in AI model training are useless for non AI purposes. They are completely specialized hardware.
Investors are already souring on the AI cost to value return. This is no longer a rush to capitalize on free money - it's a panic dash to discover something that produces profit before the bubble bursts.
There won't be bailouts for failed ventures. See the dotcom bubble for comparison. These are exuberant investors expecting massive returns "soon" and getting told "eh... it's just 2 to 5 more years away." That wasn't priced into the expansion of these stocks price. Once it starts to crumble it will be a mad dash to the door to not be the guy holding the bag.
Personally I think that Nvidia may have fucked themselves. They are valued at 10x what they were and have gone nearly all in on hyperconverged ai infrastructure. Thanks to their acquisitions and design choices they have made it a walled garden. Meanwhile most other manufacturers are investing in open architecture to take them on. If this gambit fails they will be struggling to find market share in a world hostile to their entire stack. This is how giants fall.
There are probably A LOT of AI rigs out there running on "pro-sumer" hardware
Plus, even when/if the bubble pops, it'll be for businesses/business use cases. The underlying tech is still useful and cool, I have plenty of planned projects that will benefit from some solid AI hardware as well