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this post was submitted on 09 Apr 2024
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What you want basically requires Europe to switch to a war economy. Pray that won't ever be needed
I do hope that won't be needed, I also don't think the production capacity of European weapons manufacturers is at a level where we would need to move to a war economy to buy out everything they can produce (I may be wrong, in which case I'll moderate my statement). Finally, I think that with peace-time regulations in place, manufacturers will take enough time to scale up production that we could literally buy everything they're capable of producing without surpassing like 4% of GDP.
However, I can agree that a better, more moderated statement, would be "We'll buy everything you can produce over the next five years, up to a limit of per year". To safeguard against accidentally agreeing to spending like 10 % of GDP on weapons.
The point is that manufacturers need an incentive to massively scaly up capacity now, because if shit hits the fan tomorrow, Europe will be suffering severe shell hunger, and other weapons deficits, for at least a couple years until we're able to scale up production sufficiently.
I'm not worried about a war with Russia and Europe. Europe won't start the war, they're cool enough and know to behave. Rusia might might might be stupid enough to attack Europe but that will immediately draw in the US through NATO. Even if it doesn't, the Russian army is in such a sad state that it can barely hold the relatively small lines in the Ukraine.
How well do you think they'd fare against a European sized line which has an economy nearly 10 times it's size and a high tech well organized army? The only thing Russia has got going for it is that it can still throw some people for cannon fodder and not care whereas Europe cares a lot about casualties.
The issue is that 1000x the economy doesn't help one bit unless you can use that economy to produce matériels. Currently, Russia's production capacity for e.g. artillery shells is estimated to be larger than Europes.
We're actively seeing in Ukraine that throwing cannon fodder at troops that are running low on ammo is a viable strategy if you can eat the losses, which Russia appears to be able to do.
Of course, I believe that Europe would be able to get its shot together and scale up weapons production if attacked. At the same time, I believe that while we are scaling up production, we would need to plug gaps in the line with bodies. In short: Do we really want to lose a bunch of people just because we waited to increase production until we were attacked?
Also, I think Europe should be capable of defending itself without the US. Having the US as an ally should be a bonus on top of already being a force capable of beating Russia.
Europe & US would gain air superiority within weeks. Once air superiority is there, artillery will be gone in weeks, and all that is left is guerilla tactics
You do realize that Russia is preparing for a war, right? Just asking in case you missed a few of the last months and Russias degenerated plan of a new, widespread empire...
Russia IS at war, and doing fucking terrible.
You're talking an economy the size of Italy (a minor player in the EU) but with a territory more than 59 times that of Italy. It's known for its deep corruption and the invasion of the Ukraine showed the miserable state of the Russian army.
Let's ignore nukes and NATO for a second. Russia attacks Europe and it will get it's ass handed backwards and inside out. If NATO is added, you can add the US army which brings that to utter obligation. Russia would not stand a fucking chance beyond guerilla warfare in its own territory.
All that would be really bad for Europe, probably too for the US, but Russia wouldn't stand a chance.
The problem is nukes. Russia attacks NATO, the US WILL be involved and nukes will be a near inevitability. Once the first Juke goed off, they'll all go off.
Given the current state of the Russian army and the level of corruption at every level, I'm guessing that the weapons that should never be used (nukes) are extremely expensive to maintain, and easy to scrape some money off for your second luxury boat, there nukes will likely no longer be in working order.
Russia fires a nuke, it'll be its own death warrant whilst the rest of the world MIGHT survive.
In any case, Russia is going no where. They might have mighty plans but at this point it can count itself happy if they can be the lapdog of China. I'm much more worried about China, really.
@phoenixz @CapeWearingAeroplane Wake up, it is already needed!
Europe is not at war yet, hope it never will be
@phoenixz @rogerhaase
Europe is already at war, and it started much before 24.02.2024!
Europeans just do not want to get this fact.
Yeah you need to calm down, and read a few dictionary definitions. Europe is NOT at war.. Ukraine is, and you can start yammering about technicalities but you know damn well that there is a difference.
Yes, Russia is fucking about (and finding out) but if Russia actually attacks Europe it's over. Likely not only for Russia, but for the world as that would immediately though NATO result in WWIII. Nukes WILL be involved, Russia will become a waste land and, depending on if Russia's nukes still work (there is a non zero chance that a very large amount are no longer functional), Europe and the US too.
Let's hope cooler.kinds prevail, as before. In the meantime though, stop panicking.
@phoenixz
I know what you mean, but... just a few facts to remind.
Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine are the part of Europe, geographically.
Russia is constantly participating in European wars.
No panics! I'm a Ukrainian!
1 is beyond speculative.
All your points are from before the Ukraine war when people feared the Russian army. Let's just say that the Ukrainian war really changed that perspective.